Black Turnout in the 2006 Midterms
David Bostitis
October 16, 2006
Given the importance and excitement surrounding the 2006 midterm elections and the prospect of change in partisan control of both the U.S. House and Senate, there is great interest in the question of whether black voters will turn out in high or low numbers this year. While there has been little targeted polling of African Americans this year, except in Maryland, there are both encouraging and disconcerting poll findings that speak to this issue.
A recent Pew-AP survey found a record level of enthusiasm among voters this year, but with the gains concentrated among partisan Democrats, which would include most African Americans. The Pew-AP survey found that 59 percent of Democratic voters have given a lot of thought to this election; in comparison, only 46 percent of partisan Democrats had responded that way at this point in the 2002 elections. Republican enthusiasm was found to be unchanged from 2002 (47-48 percent). Pew-AP also found that Democrats are much more excited about casting their votes this year, with 51 percent expressing more than usual enthusiasm about voting, up from only 40 percent four years earlier. Only 33 percent of GOP identifiers said that they were more enthusiastic about voting than usual—a decline from 44 percent at this time four years ago.
This Democratic enthusiasm is largely attributable to Democrats' disapproval of, and even anger toward, the Bush administration and the Republican Congress. No group has more consistently disapproved of Bush and opposed the Iraq war than African Americans; Bush's response to Katrina has only exaggerated those feelings. In a survey released this spring, just two percent of African Americans approved of Bush's job performance.
The Pew-AP survey also reported that 70 percent of voters say they are talking about politics with family and friends, and 43 percent say that they are doing so at work.
Also on the plus side, the large number of prominent black candidates and their campaigns should serve to mobilize black voters. While not a candidate, rising Democratic star Senator Barack Obama (IL) has been featured in important campaigns and rallies at a level comparable to former President Bill Clinton.
On the negative side, Curtis Gans of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate reports record low primary participation this year. However, he also notes that primary participation does not accurately forecast general election turnout.
Also on the negative side, some legislatures have passed laws that have had the effect of undermining minority turnout. In addition, some political operatives in past elections have sought to diminish the usually reliably Democratic black vote by challenging their votes and using other devices.
The Pew-AP survey identifies probably the worst negative, reporting that only 30 percent of African Americans are confident that their vote will count. If that belief is strongly held, it will be a significant disincentive to vote.
Stay tuned.