Election Update on Partisan Control in the Next Congress
David A. Bositis
October 30, 2006
U.S. House of Representatives
Based upon polling on competitive elections in individual Congressional districts, the Democrats are likely to assume control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the next Congress. The latest data available suggest that the Democrats will win 219 seats, the GOP will win 194 seats, and the remaining 22 contests are toss-ups. If the two parties evenly split the 22 toss-up races, the Democrats would have 230 seats in the new Congress. However, the latest Associated Press national poll on voters' generic preference for the U.S. House has the Democrats leading 56 to 37 percent. That level of support suggests that the Democrats will not split the toss-up contests, but will win most of them. This could result in the Democrats having as many as 240 House seats in the next Congress. It takes 218 seats for partisan control of the U.S. House.
U.S. Senate
Partisan control of the U.S. Senate is much more uncertain than in the U.S. House. Based upon the latest polling, the Democrats and the Republicans each seem to be assured of 48 seats in the new Congress, with four contests falling into the toss-up category.
In Virginia, Senator George Allen (R) is in a statistical dead heat with former Navy Secretary Jim Webb. Based upon the last five nonpartisan polls there, Allen leads 47.8 to 46.2 percent.
In Missouri, Senator Jim Talent (R) is also statistically tied with State Auditor Claire McCaskill. Again, based upon the last five nonpartisan polls there, Talent leads 46.8 to 45.6 percent.
In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez holds a narrow lead over his opponent, State Senator Tom Kean, Jr., 44 to 40.6 percent.
The fourth state is Tennessee, and the race between Harold Ford, Jr. and Bob Corker is discussed in the update on black candidates.