Prospects for Black Candidates Running for Statewide Office
Prospects for Black Candidates Running for Statewide Office
David Bositis
October 2, 2006
With approximately six weeks remaining until Election Day on November 7, there are several black candidates poised to be elected to offices that have never been held by African Americans. Contrary to many media accounts, 2006 is likely to be the year of the black Democratic candidates, not black Republican candidates.
Governor
It appears that Democrat Deval Patrick will become the first African American governor of Massachusetts. He is leading his Republican opponent, Lt. Governor Kerry Healy 57 to 24 percent in the latest polls. The prospects for black Republican gubernatorial candidates Ken Blackwell (OH) and Lynn Swann (PA) are less than encouraging. Blackwell trails his opponent, Ted Strickland, 56 to 35 percent in the most recent polls, and Swann trails Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell 55 to 39 percent.
U.S. Senate
Young Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. is astonishing many political experts with his campaign to become the first African American elected to the U.S. Senate in Tennessee—and in the South. In the most recent polls, Ford narrowly leads his opponent, Bob Corker, 46 to 45 percent. While Corker has had some early stumbles in his campaign involving controversies when he was mayor of Chattanooga, Ford’s campaign has been well-orchestrated and the candidate has connected well with voters on the issues. Maryland Republican Michael Steele's prospects are less promising, as he trails his opponent, Ben Cardin, 51 to 40 percent in the most recent polls.
Lieutenant Governor
Prospects are good for the election of two African Americans to the office of Lieutenant Governor in 2006. Democratic State Senator David Paterson is all but sworn into office; he is running with Elliot Spitzer in New York, and they have a 50 point lead over their opponents. Democratic State Representative Anthony Brown is running with gubernatorial nominee Martin O'Malley in Maryland, and they are currently leading the GOP ticket of Bob Erhlich and Kristen Cox 50 to 44 percent. Democrat Daryl Jones is running with Florida gubernatorial nominee Jim Davis, but they trail their opponents, Charlie Crist and Jeff Kottkamp, 45 to 40 percent.
Black Incumbents
Four black incumbents holding statewide office are likely to be re-elected. Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D-GA) and Georgia Department of Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond (D-GA) are each seeking a third term, as is Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White (D). Democrat Denise Nappier is also likely to be re-elected as Connecticut's treasurer.
Other Statewide Candidates
There are three additional non-incumbent black candidates seeking statewide office. In Georgia, 2004 Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Denise Majette is running for State Superintendent of Education. Her prospects are unclear at this time, but the race is likely to be a highly competitive one, which she certainly could win. Given the GOP’s woes in Ohio this year, Democrat Barbara Sykes is poised to be Ohio’s next State Auditor; many analysts are predicting that Democrats will win all statewide elections in Ohio this November. Finally, Democrat Cheryl Footman’s prospects in South Carolina are difficult at best; South Carolina has never elected a black candidate to statewide office.