The Black Vote and Competitive U.S. Senate Races

July 20, 2006

Election analysts are predicting that partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives could change as a result of the November mid-term elections. The most respected independent analysts are saying that, at this time, the probability of change is at least 50 percent. If the Democrats were to gain control of the House, it would have profound consequences for the Congressional Black Caucus and would dramatically increase the power of African American legislators. Three CBC members would become chairmen of full House committees: Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) would become chair of the powerful Ways and Means committee; Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) would become chair of the Judiciary committee; and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) would become chair of the Homeland Security committee.

Due to gerrymandering, there have been very few competitive House elections in recent years. However, there appear to be a substantial number of competitive races in 2006, and a variety of factors bode poorly for the Republicans. First, President Bush is unpopular at this time because of the Iraq war and high gasoline prices. Second, the party of a two-term president historically loses seats in the Congress in midterm elections; the only exception was Bill Clinton and the Democrats in 1998. Third, congressional corruption scandals involving convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, as well as the indictment of former Republican majority leader Tom DeLay, have reduced the public's approval of the U.S. House. In recent polls, the job approval ratings of the House were 27 percent favorable and 68 percent unfavorable. The latest Gallup poll reported that 51 percent of registered voters intended to vote for Democrats in House races in November, while only 41 percent said they would vote Republican. Currently, there are 201 Democrats in the House, and one (safe) Democratic vacancy, where the seat of Robert Menendez (D-NJ) became vacant when he was appointed to the U.S. Senate. Thus, the Democrats need to pick up 16 seats to reach a majority of 218.

Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report rates 46 House seats as being competitive. Of the seats rated competitive, 36 are currently held by Republicans, while only 10 are held by Democrats. Of the 36 Republican-held seats, Cook rates 15 as toss-ups, meaning that either party has a good chance of winning the seat. Twenty-one seats are rated lean-Republican, which means that the contests are competitive, but the Republican candidate in each contest has an advantage. This advantage might represent incumbency, a financial advantage, or a district with more Republican voters. The 10 Democratic seats rated competitive by Cook are all rated lean-Democratic. At minimum, to reach a majority, the Democrats would have to hold all of the seats currently held by Democrats, and capture about 44 percent of the 36 competitive Republican-held seats.

The Democrats' prospects of re-gaining control of the House is contingent on the party re-electing all of its incumbents, and in these districts black voters are an especially important voting bloc.

The BVAP is significant in two of the Republican districts that are rated toss-up.

The BVAP is significant in three of the Republican districts that are rated lean-Republican.

Given the great importance of the 2006 election for both parties, black voters in a relatively small number of places can have a large impact on the eventual outcome of the mid-terms. Black voters in Bridgeport, Connecticut; Cincinnati, Ohio; Louisville, Kentucky; Norfolk, Virginia; and Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties in Texas have a lot to think about between now and November 7.