Update on Black Candidates for Statewide Office
David A. Bositis
October 30, 2006
With less than two weeks before the November 7 midterm elections, the prospects for the two black Democrats running for top offices are much more favorable than those of the three black Republicans seeking similar offices.
In Massachusetts, former Assistant U.S. Attorney General Deval Patrick (D) has pulled away from his opponent Lt. Governor Kerry Healy, and is almost certain to become the second black elected governor since Reconstruction. The average of the last five independent polls shows Patrick leading Healy 52.4 to 29.6 percent.
In Tennessee, U.S. Representative Harold Ford, Jr. (D) remains locked in a very close contest with former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker for the U.S. Senate. The last five polls on average show Corker with a small 47.2 to 45.8 percent lead; however, two polls released yesterday show the race tied. For almost the last week, both campaigns, as well as the Republican National Committee, have been mired in controversy over a racist TV ad attacking Ford. It is unclear as yet whether the ad, which features a blond, supposedly a playboy model, asking Mr. Ford to call her, will have any impact on the contest.
In Ohio, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R) will almost certainly lose the gubernatorial election to U.S. Representative Ted Strickland; Strickland leads Blackwell by an insurmountable 24 points, 57.8 to 33.4 percent.
In Pennsylvania, Lynn Swann (R) is in a similarly hopeless gubernatorial contest with incumbent Governor Ed Rendell. Rendell leads in the most recent polls 56 to 37 percent.
In Maryland, Lt. Governor Michael Steele (R) faces a decidedly uphill contest for the U.S. Senate against U.S. Representative Ben Cardin. While Steele has run a good campaign and made a major effort to court Maryland's large pool of African American voters, the state's strong Democratic tilt and unfavorable national climate for the GOP make his prospects dim. In the most recent polls, he trails Cardin 47.8 to 42.4 percent.
The prospects of two of the three black candidates running for Lt. Governor this year look good. New York State Senator David Paterson (D) and his running mate State Attorney General Elliot Spitzer have already clinched their contest; the polls show their lead on the order of 70 to 20 percent. Maryland State Representative Anthony Brown (D) and running mate Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley lead their GOP rivals 50.6 to 42.8 percent, according to recent polls. Former state Representative Daryl Jones and U.S. Representative Jim Davis, who are on the Democratic ticket in the race for the Florida State House, trail the GOP ticket headed by Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist 48.4 to 40.8 percent.