JOINT CENTER News Room
Joint Center Poll Shows Obama Candidacy Attracting Record-level Support from African American Voters
Dramatic Fall-off in Identification with GOP Continues
October 21, 2008
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE |
For more information contact:
Betty Anne Williams
Margaret Bolton |
Joint Center Poll Shows Obama Candidacy Attracting Record-level Support from African American Voters
Dramatic Fall-off in Identification with GOP Continues
Exactly two weeks before Americans select the next President of the United States, a new survey of African Americans’ political attitudes confirms that support for Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) among black voters is at near record levels for a Democratic nominee, while black identification with the Republican Party has dropped by 60 percent since 2004. In addition, the poll found that both former President Bill Clinton and Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) have retained their high favorability ratings among black voters.
The poll, released today by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, found that 84 percent of African Americans prefer Senator Obama over his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain (R-AZ), who was chosen by six percent of respondents, with 10 percent undecided or preferring not to share their preference. More than 90 percent of respondents had a favorable view of the Democratic nominee, with 4.7 percent viewing him unfavorably, as opposed to 22.8 / 65.1 percent favorable / unfavorable rating for Senator McCain.
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“Clearly, the historic Obama candidacy is drawing almost unprecedented black support for the Democratic ticket, some 15 percentage points higher than what Senator John Kerry received in our poll four years ago,” said David Bositis, Senior Research Associate at the Joint Center and the author of the study. “If the undecideds break along the same lines as those who expressed a preference, Senator Obama would draw 94 percent of the black vote and thereby tie President Johnson’s record-high share in the 1964 election.” |
David Bositis |
Conducted just prior to every presidential election since 1984, this year’s Joint Center poll also found that both former President Clinton and Senator Clinton had emerged from the contentious Democratic primary season with their high favorability ratings intact among the black electorate. Senator Clinton is viewed favorably by 86.4 percent of African Americans, more than six points higher than she fared in the Joint Center’s 2004 poll, with only 7.8 percent viewing her unfavorably. Former President Clinton was viewed favorably by 85.5 percent of respondents, and unfavorably by 9.2 percent. As he prepared to leave office in 2000, a Joint Center poll pegged his favorable rating among African Americans at 91 percent.
The poll also found a significant change in party identification among African American voters, with 73 percent identifying themselves as Democrats, up from 63 percent in 2004, and black Republicans in the survey declining to four percent, down from 10 percent four years ago. The percentage of black Independents declined from 23 percent to 19 percent over the same four year period.
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Ralph B. Everett |
“These poll numbers are confirming what we expected—that Senator Obama’s historic candidacy is enormously popular with African American voters and is, in fact, driving significantly higher percentages of them to identify with the Democratic Party,” said Ralph B. Everett, the Joint Center’s President and CEO. “These numbers come on top of record levels of participation by black voters in the Democratic primaries, all of which indicate that black turnout in the general election will surpass existing records both national and in individual states.” |
In other findings from the survey, President George W. Bush's favorable ratings among African Americans are the lowest on record for a sitting president. Only 13.3 percent of African Americans view Bush favorably, while 80.2 percent view him unfavorably.
The poll shows there is only one issue of note—the economy—with 62 percent of African Americans naming it the most important national problem. A majority of African Americans (55 percent) said their financial status was worse than it was in the previous year. Only eight percent of respondents said their financial situation improved over the past year.
The intensity of the African American vote could be pivotal to the outcome in some state races. Black voters are an important factor in several swing states, including Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri—as well as in several crucial U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky and Mississippi, Bositis said.
The 2008 Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies National Opinion Poll is a national survey of 750 African American adults, conducted between September 16 and October 6, 2008. The survey's questions cover a range of topics including politics of the 2008 election and education. The findings should be interpreted with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies is one of the nation’s premier research and public policy institutions and the only one whose work focuses exclusively on issues of particular concern to African Americans and other people of color. For more information, go to www.jointcenter.org