This is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what happened on November 6, 2012. In particular, this review will focus on the re-election of President Barack Obama, the behavior and significance of African American voters in the 2012 elections; and the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for federal office, as well as their performance at the polls.

While the 2008 Democratic National Convention represented an historic occasion for African Americans and black politics when, for the first time, an African American was the Democratic Party’s nominee for President, 2012 represents a somewhat different but still momentous historic occasion--a black President, Barack Obama, seeking re-election.

The presidential election on November 6, 2012, is likely to be quite different from the Obama-McCain election in 2008.  The political climate in 2012 is greatly changed from four years earlier--the Republicans regained control of the U.S. House in 2010, there is substantial national dissatisfaction with the economy and the general direction of the country.  In 2008, demographic and political changes, along with the Obama campaign’s grassroots and internet organizing, changed the electoral map with Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, several states in the American West, and Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in the South moving from red to blue.

This guide details the range of participation by African Americans in the Democratic Party, the geographical and partisan dimensions of the black vote in recent years, and black voters’ attitudes toward many issues that may be significant in the fall campaign. The information will be of interest to political activists and election watchers, as well as to scholars of American politics. Moreover, by better appreciating their own capacity to be influential, black Democrats will be better able to use their influence in pursuit of their public policy interests.

The 2008 Presidential election was an historic occasion for African Americans, when for the first time, an African American was elected President.  This year, President Obama is seeking a second term, and there is no reason to expect any change in black voting patterns.  President Obama will almost certainly receive strong black support on November 6.  The Republicans’ nominee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has little history with African Americans.  Further, the growing influence of the anti-black Tea Party within the GOP makes political appeals to African Americans difficult for any Republican office-seeker.  Finally, Romney’s Mormon faith is off-putting to many African Americans since for much of their history, Mormons held blacks to be inferior to whites.  The divide between African Americans and the Republican Party, once so narrow, has become a chasm.

This guide details the range of participation by African Americans in the Republican Party, the geographical and partisan dimensions of the black vote in recent years, and black voters’ attitudes toward many issues that may be significant in the fall campaign. The information will be of interest to political activists and election watchers, as well as to scholars of American politics. Moreover, by better appreciating their own capacity to be influential, black Republicans, despite their low numbers among the voting population, will nonetheless be better able to use what influence they have in pursuit of their public policy interests.

This three-city survey builds on earlier Joint Center national surveys that looked at the views of African Americans on climate change, health and conservation behaviors. In the national surveys, clear majorities said they believed climate change and global warming were a major problem, and they believed that global warming will have significant adverse effects on public health, economic instability, fires, and droughts-and that these problems will be worse for future generations. In this study, the Joint Center focused on African Americans living in three cities (Atlanta, Cleveland and Philadelphia) with large black populations and a variety of air quality issues. The survey questions probed respondents about the air quality where they lived, the sources of pollution, and their views of EPA regulations that seek to reduce health risks and costs. The questions about EPA regulations were clearly framed to present both costs and benefits to the American public.

Download the companion White Paper: Health and Economic Benefits of Clean Air Regulations

Following the election of President Barack Obama, many political observers – especially conservative ones — suggested that the United States is now a post-racial society. Three years later, in the region of the country where most African Americans live, the South, there is strong statistical evidence that politics is resegregating, with African Americans once again excluded from power and representation. Black voters and elected officials have less influence now than at any time since the civil rights era. And since conservative whites control all the power in the region, they are enacting legislation both neglectful of the needs of African Americans and other communities of color (in health care, in education, in criminal justice policy) as well as outright hostile to them, as in the assault on voting rights through photo identification laws and other means.

The racially polarized voting that defines much of southern politics at this time, is in certain ways recreating the segregated system of the Old South, albeit a de facto
system with minimal violence rather than the de jure system of before. If the political parties in the South are now a substitute for racial labels, then black aspirations there will continue to be limited. All this is reminiscent of the white primaries and poll taxes of days gone by.

This analysis provides a brief review of the potential role of black voters and candidates in the 2010 Midterms. In particular, it examines some past midterm elections where a strong black turnout had a very material effect on various election outcomes. Black voters are strategically situated in 2010 to have a major impact provided an effort is made to get them to polls on November 2.

 

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This publication is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what transpired on November 2, 2010, when the Democrats lost their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and at least 19 state legislative chambers, maintained control in the U.S. Senate, and lost several important gubernatorial elections. The black vote was critical to the outcome of some closely contested elections, but not enough in many more. In particular, this review will focus on the behavior and significance of African-American voters in the 2010 midterm elections; and the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, as well as their performance at the polls.

 

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There is widespread agreement that the Democrats are poised to lose a significant number of congressional seats in the 2010 midterm elections. This is largely due to high unemployment and a poor economy. The extent of the Democrats’ losses will depend on their ability to turn out their most loyal voters, and no voting bloc will be more important than African Americans. If they can mobilize a strong black turnout, the Democrats can reduce their losses.

What happened? What follows is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what transpired on November 8, 1994, when the Republicans won a majority of seats in both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as in an additional 17 state legislative bodies. In particular, this review will focus on three areas: the behavior and significance of African-American voters in the 1994 midterms elections; the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, and their performance at the polls; and the significance of these substantial Republican gains for black legislators at both the federal and state level. Finally, after reviewing this evidence, a few observations regarding these Republican gains will be offered.

African-American voters, issues and leaders played a more pivotal role in the elections of 1992 than at any time in history.  However, the nature and contours of that participation were quite different from before, and the significance of their role in the electoral process was in many respects quite unexpected.  Despite the unforeseen twists and turns of the 1992 elections, the overall logic of the presidential campaign was strategically quite lucid, and anticipates what may be the shape of racial politics in the 19902 and beyond.