What happened? What follows is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what transpired on November 8, 1994, when the Republicans won a majority of seats in both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as in an additional 17 state legislative bodies. In particular, this review will focus on three areas: the behavior and significance of African-American voters in the 1994 midterms elections; the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, and their performance at the polls; and the significance of these substantial Republican gains for black legislators at both the federal and state level. Finally, after reviewing this evidence, a few observations regarding these Republican gains will be offered.

African-American voters, issues and leaders played a more pivotal role in the elections of 1992 than at any time in history.  However, the nature and contours of that participation were quite different from before, and the significance of their role in the electoral process was in many respects quite unexpected.  Despite the unforeseen twists and turns of the 1992 elections, the overall logic of the presidential campaign was strategically quite lucid, and anticipates what may be the shape of racial politics in the 19902 and beyond.

The analysis by senior research associate David Bositis examines the impact African Americans are likely to have in the November elections, with special attention to black trends in partisanship, public opinion, and voting behavior. The volume also includes listings of black Republican elected officials and black delegates and alternatives to the 2000 convention in Philadelphia.

The analysis by senior research associate David A. Bositis examines the impact African Americans are likely to have in the November elections, with special attention to black trends in partisanship, public opinion, and voting behavior. The volume also includes listings of black Democratic elected officials and black delegates and alternates to the 2000 convention in Los Angeles.

There were several interesting developments in black politics in November 1996, the two most significant of which are the large increase in the black male vote and the election of four African-Americans to the U.S. House from majority white districts. Overall black turnout appears to be up from 1992, and African-Americans again were primarily Democratic in their partisanship on November 5.

TURNOUT. According to the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, overall turnout in the 1996 election was down substantially from 1992; in 1992, 104.4 million people voted, while in 1996, 95.8 million people voted. This was the lowest level of voter participation since 1924.

This is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what transpired on November 3, 1998, when the black vote was critical to the outcome of a number of closely contested elections. This review focuses on two aspects of the election: (1) the behavior and significance of African American voters in the 1998 midterm elections; and (2) the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, as well as their performance at the polls.

National turnout in the 1998 midterms was down from 1994. According to the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, overall turnout declined from 38.8 percent in 1994 to 36.1 percent this year. African American voters turned out at somewhat lower rates than in 1994, principally reflecting the overall decline among the general population. According to exit polls, the black share of the 1998 vote was 10 percent, the same share as in 1994. Thus, there was no decline in the black share of the vote nationally.

The 2007 Joint Center National Survey of Likely Black Presidential Primary Voters is a national survey of 750 black likely primary/caucus voters, conducted between Oct. 5 and Nov. 2, 2007. Respondents were asked their views on important national problems, issues in the campaign, and candidates for both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations. The survey methodology is described in an accompanying appendix. The Joint Center conducted the survey with the support of the AARP and wishes to thank them for that support.

 

Please use the following links to download the survey and accompanying questionnaire, appendix, and tables.

The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies 2007 National Survey of Likely Black Presidential Primary Voters

National Questionnaire: Sample of 750 African American Likely Primary Voters

Appendix

 

National Survey Tables
Table 1. What do you think is the single most important problem facing the country today? [download]	Table 5. How would you rate the job that congress is doing? Is it excellent, good, only fair, or poor? [download]
Table 2. Please tell me which one of these will be most important [second most important] to you personally in the presidential election? [download]	Table 6. Please tell me which political party you think has the better approach to dealing with some different issues. [download]
Table 3. Would you say that you are financially better off, worse off, or about the same now as you were a year ago? [download]	Table 7. I'm going to read a list of the leading candidates running for president. I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very favorable, favorable, unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you haven't heard about someone or don't know enough about them to rate them, just say so. [download]
Table 4. How would you rate the job that President Bush is doing? Is it excellent, good, only fair, or poor? [download]	Table 8. Which of the Democratic candidates do you think has the best position on: [DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS N = 655]/ [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS N = 95] [download]

 

Date Published: November 2007
 

On November 2, 2004, the black vote was critical to the outcome of a number of closely contested elections. What follows is a brief review of turnout and election results from November 2, 2004, based on the available evidence. It focuses on the behavior and significance of African American voters in the elections; and the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for federal office as well as their performance at the polls.

 

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Date Published: 2005

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This issue brief examines small black churches' participation in the Bush administration's Faith-Based and Community Initiative (FBCI). This analysis includes the extent to which these churches have the capacity to conform to the federal regulations governing the program, their attitudes toward the FBCI, and the nature of their experiences in attempting to seek such funds.

The reason for focusing on small black churches is simple, but significant. When the Bush administration first introduced the program, using executive orders and administrative actions to implement it, the rationale was based on perceived discrimination against small religious organizations. The first director of the White House FBCI office, John DiIulio, Jr., released a report in 2001 entitled Unlevel Playing Field, which argued that the public administration of federal social service programs is irrationally biased against small nonprofit organizations, especially small religious ones. This issue brief assesses whether small black churches have the capacity to participate in the program, and identifies factors that might make small black churches more likely to participate.

The issue brief is based on a subsample of 125 small black churches from a larger Joint Center national survey of 750 black churches. Small churches here are defined as having 125 or fewer congregants. The survey was conducted between November 11, 2005 and January 24, 2006.

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Date Published: May 2007

The 1997 Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies National Opinion Poll is a national survey of 1,702 adults, which was conducted between March 21 and April 20, 1997. The survey's questions cover a broad range of topics including race relations, politics, devolution, social policy, and children's issues. The following analysis concerns survey findings on race relations.

 

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