For more than a year, Americans have heard a steady drumbeat about the dangers of the proverbial fiscal cliff from politicians, pundits and others.

When the clock strikes 12 on December 31, we've been told, an economic and financial time bomb will be triggered that will drag the country back into recession, cause stock markets to tumble, unleash another layer of unemployment and saddle middle-class Americans with thousands of dollars of additional taxes each year.

While dramatic, this scenario is unlikely to play out as forecast, said one local economist.

"On January 1, we will have started down a path where a range of people in a wide swath of life will suffer. We're expecting a hatchet on January 1 and everyone will be bleeding but it won't work out that way," said Wilhelmina Leigh, Ph.D., a senior research associate on economic security issues at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Northwest. "I think there are some clear, negative likely implications if we go off the fiscal cliff. Lights wouldn't go off but people may have to burn lights six hours a day and eat two meals instead of three. All the cuts will be spread out over the next decade so you won't see its effects instantly. This might have been done for people to buy time or it might have been the least painful way – if you have to suffer, it's better to spread it out."

Read more at The Washington Informer.

There was so much cacophony at the Republican National Convention in Tampa this summer that some unscripted remarks were not given the prominence they deserved. One of the most prescient, in light of Mitt Romney’s defeat, was this from South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham: “We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.” Graham’s bleak demographic assessment of the conservative future was confirmed by David Bositis, of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, whose harsh verdict was that the “Republican Party base is white, aging and dying off.”

Has the GOP really become a redoubt for “angry white guys”? Will Republicans put themselves out of business by not appealing fast enough to young voters? To put it at its most stark: Are conservatives going extinct? Graham’s view was echoed this past weekend by the Republican sage George Will. Pondering whether the Supreme Court will declare gay marriage legal, he said, “There is something like an emerging consensus. Quite literally, the opposition to gay marriage is dying. It’s old people.”

Read more at Reuters.

It’s easy to understand why some Republicans and pollsters dismissed the idea that the Obama coalition from 2008 would be fired up and ready to go in 2012. Not possible. Not with the unemployment rate at 14.3 percent among blacks, 10 percent among Hispanics, and 11.8 percent among adults under 30.

Yet, fired up or just trudging to the polls, those groups were among President Obama’s principal bulwarks against defeat in decisive states. In some cases they made up a greater share of the national electorate than they did in 2008. The outcome confounded some conservatives and surprised even some pollsters.

African-Americans, for instance, made up 13 percent of the national electorate in the historic 2008 election. This week, after years of a down economy, months of a dispiriting campaign, and long-running rumblings about whether Obama has neglected the black community, distanced himself from it, or taken it for granted, they were still at 13 percent of the electorate.

“Black voters were absolutely not going to let Obama lose if they could help it,” said David Bositis, senior political analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. They proved particularly useful to Obama in swing states. Black voters went from a 12-percent share of the electorate in Michigan in 2008 to 16 percent this week, exit polls showed, and from 11 percent to 15 percent in Ohio. Under-30 voters accounted for 19 percent of the national electorate, up from 18 percent. Hispanics, meanwhile, rose from 9 percent to 10 percent.

Read more at the National Journal.

After the thrill of the Nov. 6 federal election victories subside, after the agony of defeat has eased, after the laureates have been named and the scapegoats have been blamed, the old administration and the old Congress must come together in a “lame duck” governing session beginning Nov. 13 to resolve some vitally important issues. Then both major parties must strategize how to move the nation forward facing at least two more years of possible gridlock.

The reelection victory for President Barack Obama could be interpreted by the White House and his Democratic allies as a mandate to pursue economic recovery and debt reduction his way, first insisting on raising taxes on families making more than $250,000. The president would likely push to steer money toward energy development, education and worker training, manufacturing support and rebuilding the crumbling infrastructure.

“(President) Obama will have a lot of leverage,” Dr. David Bositis, senior research fellow at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies told The Final Call, before the president won reelection Nov. 6. “He basically will be in the driver’s seat and get—I won’t say he gets what he wants—but he’ll get most of what he wants.”

Read more at The Final Call.

For many African Americans, this election was not just about holding on to history, but also confronting what they perceived as a shadowy campaign to suppress the black vote.

Black voters responded with a historic turnout here in Ohio and strong showings across a range of battleground states, according to exit poll results. Buoyed by a sophisticated ground operation by the Obama campaign, African Americans helped provide the edge in Virginia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and perhaps Florida, which remained too close to call Wednesday. Their support narrowed President Obama's losing margin in North Carolina.

"This is a man who is fighting for the opportunity for all people to reach the American dream," said retired Marine Andre Baird, 55, as champagne dripped down his bald head at an Obama victory party in Cleveland on Tuesday night. "These hands," Baird added, his right hand clenching into a fist, "have knocked on at least a thousand doors!"

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African American voters had more concrete relationships with Obama in this election and had benefited from his first term, said David Bositis, a researcher with the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. Obama's health-care overhaul, in particular, offered a disproportionate benefit to African Americans, 36 percent of whom previously lacked health coverage, as opposed to whites, 12 percent of whom lacked coverage, he said.

In North Carolina, the African American vote held at 23 percent, the same level as 2008, even as the pull of making history faded.

Read more at The Independent.

The strong showing from blacks and Hispanics at the polls on Tuesday that helped re-elect President Barack Obama and boosted several Democrats into office across the country will force the Republican Party to change its strategy in the future, says Dr. David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.

“This was not simply a re-election, but 2012 will be the last campaign where one of the major parties seeks to get elected, solely with the white vote,” Bositis said during a briefing today on the Role of African American voters. “A successful political movement will have to appeal to a broader swath other than non-Hispanic white people.”

The 2012 election was a clear showing that America is now multi-racial, multi ethnic country, he said.

According to the Joint Center, when Democrat John Kerry faced George W. Bush in 2004, 79 percent of American electorate was non-Hispanic white. By 2008, that percentage had dropped to 74 and this year, it was 72 percent.

At the same time, the share of African American voters and the share of Hispanic voters increased.

The share of African American voters has grown from 11 to 13 percent, while the share of Hispanic voters has grown from 6 to 10 percent, Bositis said.

Read more at Black America Web.

The Grand Old Party is still asking why and engaging in Presidential Election post mortem after their candidate Governor Mitt Romney lost the election. Over the weekend some Republicans began blaming a possible loss of momentum on Superstorm Sandy. Since Wednesday morning, they are simply pointing fingers. For many the answer is clear; the GOP walked away from their prior umbrella approach to include the nation’s minority populations.

The Party walked away from something former RNC Chairman Michael Steele made a priority while leading the RNC. Steele included outreach to those in “Harlem” and to those in “Little Havana” as well as other minority communities.

President Obama, prior to the election, told White House reporters Romney would “lose” because he did not reach out to the Latino population.

David Bositis, Senior Fellow at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, contends “One of the big stories of this campaign is how much Hispanics were alienated by the Republican Party.” Stories on the black vote are not as newsy. Bositis contends, “African Americans were already alienated before the campaign started.” Translation from the media mindset; that was nothing new.

Read more at AprilDRyan.com.

In some ways, the hardest thing President Obama had to do was get reelected.

Ezra Klein, a business columnist for The Washington Post, wrote Wednesday that “President Obama’s reelection, ironically, isn’t about hope and change. The hope is largely gone, but the changes are already happening.”

Klein pointed out that health care reform had passed and that just by being reelected Obama had managed to confirm that it would become the law of the land when most of the remaining elements of Obamacare take effect in 2014.

The Bush tax cuts are set to expire at the end of the year, as well as the alternative minimum tax and the payroll tax cut. The president already has said he will not sign legislation extending all three tax cuts.

If that’s the case, then part of the problem of raising revenue is somewhat resolved and the legislation is already on the books.

Add to that the Dodd-Frank financial reform act, which will set new regulations for Wall Street and has already passed into law.

The resolutions to three sticky problems are already on the books and Obama doesn’t have to fight with the Republican-led House of Representatives again to get any of it passed.

“So while in 2008 his election was a vote for hope, in 2012 his reelection carries a guarantee of change,” Klein wrote.

One also may argue that it simply was more of the smart planning that Obama and his team have been known for.

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The GOP’s strategy was to rely largely on white men and shave off small chunks, 5-7 percent of black and Latino votes, a significant percentage of women, although not a majority, to put Romney over the top.

It clearly didn’t work.

“2012 will be the last campaign where one of the major parties seeks to get elected solely with the white vote,” David Bositis, senior political analyst for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, said Wednesday in a forum to discuss the impact of the black vote during this year’s campaign.

Bositis said the black vote was crucial in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida, the latter where votes are still being counted and Obama maintains a narrow lead—and Romney today conceded the state to Obama.

In Ohio, particularly, the percentage of black voters increased by 4 percentage points, from 11 to 15 percent of the total turnout, compared to 2008. And Obama won 96 percent of the black vote on Tuesday.

“That’s where President Obama’s margin of victory came from, the black vote in Ohio,” Bositis said.

Read more at the Atlanta Black Star.

In the days immediately following the presidential election, Martin Mendez was in a blue funk.

A Latino Republican, he watched with dismay as poll after poll revealed that not only did President Barack Obama win a second term in office, but he did so with a sizable portion of the Hispanic vote.

The loss was especially painful for Mendez, who spent hours knocking on the doors of Hispanics around Denver in an effort to convince them to give the GOP a try.

"Out in the field in Denver, the comments I got ... the feedback was Mitt Romney's for the millionaires. We're these poor Hispanics, so we're going to vote for Obama because he's for the little guy," Mendez said, his voice full of exasperation.

"There is this class warfare game that Democrats play every single election cycle. We have to start now, reaching out now and not sit on the sidelines until the next cycle," he said.

The growing influence of Latinos, blacks, women and young people in America is not a new story. Demographers have known that at some point the country would become more non-white than white. Social scientists knew that the American landscape was changing, and that change would begin to have profound impact on the nation's shifting identity.

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Over the next several generations, the wave of minority voters -- who, according to U.S. Census figures released earlier this year, now represent more than half of the nation's population born in the past year -- will become more of a power base in places like Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. That hold will extend across the Southwest all the way to California, experts say.

The coming political revolution could result in a massive changing of the guard on nearly every level of government, potential cultural clashes from big cities to rural towns, and the type of political alliances that are now considered rare.

"I do think that the era that began with Ronald Regan where there was a conservative dominance powered by conservative voters and Southern whites. That era is over," said David Bositis, a senior political analyst, at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. "Any candidate that wants to run a campaign [now] only at whites is going to lose."

Read more at CNN.

Maybe it's just math, but it may also be a great political accomplishment.

President Obama has put together a coalition that's not only been a winner for him, but promises to pay dividends to his party for years to come.

A mix of minorities, young people and educated white professionals has now driven him to two majority-vote presidential victories — the first Democrat to pull that off since Franklin D. Roosevelt.

"What historians and political scientists will focus on is that he changed the coalition of the Democratic Party," says Villanova University political scientist Lara Brown. "The new coalition is groups with ascendant demographics — new minorities and young people."

As has been widely noted this week, Obama managed to recapture broad support from groups largely responsible for his 2008 election: African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, single women, and young and highly educated whites.

Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the overall white vote, according to exit polling. With whites shrinking as a share of the electorate — and Republicans struggling to appeal to minorities — it wasn't enough.

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Obama has shown the party it can not only win but dominate the Electoral College with very little support in the South, outside states such as Virginia and Florida that are conducive to his coalition.

But there's no guarantee that other Democrats will be able to draw on the same sources of support. African-Americans and young people did not turn out in force in 2010, which was one big reason Republicans enjoyed big victories at the congressional and state levels that year.

"I wouldn't say that other Democrats could automatically count on it," says David Bositis, a senior research associate at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a think tank that studies minority affairs.

But, Bositis notes, there are other prominent Democrats who should be able to appeal to the same sort of constituencies that propelled Obama to victory.

Read more at NPR.