For more than a year, Americans have heard a steady drumbeat about the dangers of the proverbial fiscal cliff from politicians, pundits and others.

When the clock strikes 12 on December 31, we've been told, an economic and financial time bomb will be triggered that will drag the country back into recession, cause stock markets to tumble, unleash another layer of unemployment and saddle middle-class Americans with thousands of dollars of additional taxes each year.

While dramatic, this scenario is unlikely to play out as forecast, said one local economist.

"On January 1, we will have started down a path where a range of people in a wide swath of life will suffer. We're expecting a hatchet on January 1 and everyone will be bleeding but it won't work out that way," said Wilhelmina Leigh, Ph.D., a senior research associate on economic security issues at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Northwest. "I think there are some clear, negative likely implications if we go off the fiscal cliff. Lights wouldn't go off but people may have to burn lights six hours a day and eat two meals instead of three. All the cuts will be spread out over the next decade so you won't see its effects instantly. This might have been done for people to buy time or it might have been the least painful way – if you have to suffer, it's better to spread it out."

Read more at The Washington Informer.

The impending and dreaded so-called fiscal cliff is a deadline on a group of bills and legislative acts that currently govern almost all facets of the federal government, with many of the current laws, tax codes and more set to change or expire simultaneously.

This is a deadline that if not avoided by timely and effective congressional action, will trigger severe and nearly immediate funding cuts—sequestration—in federal programs and services along with tax increases estimated in the $650 billion range, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

The major portion (approximately $500 billion) would be caused by increased taxes when the Bush and other tax cuts expire, combined with Congress’ refusal to patch the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT).

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Many in the nation’s economic community feel these actions, or Congress’ lack of action, by midnight Dec. 31, 2012., could possibly trigger another deep recession.

Economist Wilhelmina Leigh said this impasse is not due to any one thing, nor is it attributable to recent economic shortfalls, but has been brewing for years. Leigh is a senior research associate at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C.

“The U.S. has been on a collision course for the last decade or so, where we’re spending more and taking in less in revenues,” said Leigh. “We haven’t been able to change that pattern of behavior because members of Congress weren’t really willing to, and now all sorts of things have converged—our deficit each year has been adding up over time, so now we have a huge debt.”

Read more at Our Weekly.

After receiving poor marks for his performance in his nationally-televised debate with Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, President Barack Obama received a much-needed boost from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report showing that unemployment fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest it has been in nearly four years.

The September report released last week is significant because, unlike in previous months, the rate did not drop because “discouraged workers” dropped out of the labor force.

Not all of the news was encouraging. Even though the unemployment rate for blacks dropped to 13.4 percent in September from 14.1 percent in August, it remained relatively flat for black men (14.2 percent in September vs. 14.3 percent in August).

The unemployment rate for white men decreased from 6.8 in August to 6.6 percent in September. The jobless rate for white women ticked down two-tenths in September to 6.3 percent. Black women saw the biggest decrease in the unemployment rate among adults, falling from 12 percent in August to 10.9 percent in September.

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“It’s a very mixed picture. I wouldn’t say that we’ve turned the corner, but I would say that unemployment rate is down some, but we still have a large amount of people working part-time for economic reasons,” said Wilhemina Leigh, senior research associate at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a public policy think tank.

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For many black men, the same set of circumstances that will prevent them from voting in the November 6 presidential election also block their ability to earn a living wage.

“A felony conviction is like an economic death sentence,” said David Bositis, a senior research associate at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.

The number and types of jobs are significantly reduced for ex-felons, said Bositis. Even though some companies have special programs to help ex-offenders return to the job market, they can’t keep pace in some southern states where 20 percent of blacks have prior felony convictions.

Read more at The Charlotte Post.

The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies collaborated with the Center on Race and Wealth at Howard University to host a discussion with asset-building coalition leaders from Illinois and Mississippi about the models they have used to develop their state policy agendas. Click here to view the full webinar or here for the webinar slides.

Danielle Deane, Director of the Joint Center's Energy and Environment Program, and Faith Taylor, Director of Sustainability for Wyndham Group Worldwide, discuss climate change, corporate social responsibility, and sustainability at a panel held by the American Sustainable Business Council. The panel was part of a larger event, "Summit for a Sustainable Economy," held by ASBC at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday, September 6, 2012.

The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies collaborated with the Center on Race and Wealth at Howard University to host a discussion of how to develop and use indicators to measure economic mobility in Texas and in Mississippi on June 21, 2012. Click here to view the full webinar or here for the webinar slides.

The glass ceiling will shatter when the practices that support it have been eliminated from labor market hiring, firing and promotion decisions. Since women’s lack of educational credentials is seldom a part of this, the increased pursuit of higher education by young women in this dour economy is unlikely — by itself — to shatter the ceiling.

Young women and young men are both responding rationally to the current economic environment in which being previously unemployed puts one out of the running for many available jobs. Being enrolled in school is not considered being unemployed, so young women are right to think they may have better job prospects by the time they finish school and when the economy has improved.

Read more at The New York Times.

In its deliberations to develop a plan to reduce the federal deficit by more than a trillion dollars over the next decade, the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction considered a proposal to calculate cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) in all government programs using the Chained Consumer Price Index-Urban (C-CPI-U), rather than the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U).

Implementing this proposal would dramatically reduce Social Security benefits for recipients. Although reducing federal program benefits by changing the COLA computation is indeed one way to reduce the deficit, reducing benefits is not the only way to eliminate the 75-year projected shortfall (of 2.2 percent of taxable payroll) for the Social Security system.

The shortfall can be closed by holding benefit levels harmless and, instead, increasing revenue directed to the system. A recent report of the Commission to Modernize Social Security Plan for A New Future: The Impact of Social Security Reform on People of Color offers recommendations for doing just that.

Read more at GlobalPolicy.tv and the Joint Center Blog.

On November 18, I participated in the inaugural event for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies’ launch of its Institute on Civic Engagement and Governance. I had the opportunity to participate on a plenary panel to discuss the challenges and effects of inequality on public policy with Professor William Darity, from Duke University.  I reflected on President Obama’s unique record in handling record levels of income inequality.

Data from 2010 on income and poverty from the US Census Bureau highlights that the bottom 20 percent of households in America earn only 3.3 percent of total income in the US.  The next quintile, the lower-middle income, earns 8.5 percent of the total, and the middle quintile, the mathematical middle-class, earns 14.6 percent.  This means that the poor, and the middle class and lower-middle class earn a combined 26.4 percent of US income.  That is, the bottom six-in-ten of America gets less than three-in-ten of the income.  This results in a disadvantage for the bottom sixty percent and also develops an economic minority.

Read more at The White House Blog.

Conferences held by think tanks are par for the course in Washington, but the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies sponsored an afternoon of plenary sessions that set this effort apart from the pack.   
 
Policy experts, scholars and leaders in business, politics and civil rights gathered at the National Press Club to take part in the Joint Center’s African-American Economic Summit. It featured discussions focusing on ways to address economic inequalities, build an equitable economy in a competitive world, and devise policy solutions so that all Americans can succeed.

Ralph B. Everett, president and CEO of the Joint Center said, “We wanted to put some solutions on the table so people would have something to be hopeful for. It doesn’t feel good to rehash how bad things are so we wanted to give people something to work toward.”

Read more at BET.