Herman Cain's assertion that blacks' overwhelming support of the Democratic Party was evidence of their having been "brainwashed" was the latest salvo in an intra-racial war of words over the state of black politics.

From President Barack Obama's recent run-ins with BET News and the Congressional Black Caucus, to attendees at a caucus conference questioning the racial consciousness of Cain and Republican Rep. Allen West because of their association with the tea party, many observers on both sides of the political aisle are trying to figure out what to make of all of the infighting.

Is there such a thing as a uniform black political agenda? Are conservatism and black cultural pride incompatible? Do blacks really behave as political lemmings, and could they benefit from embracing the Republican agenda?

 

Read more at the Indianapolis Recorder.

This analysis provides a brief review of the potential role of black voters and candidates in the 2010 Midterms. In particular, it examines some past midterm elections where a strong black turnout had a very material effect on various election outcomes. Black voters are strategically situated in 2010 to have a major impact provided an effort is made to get them to polls on November 2.

 

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This publication is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what transpired on November 2, 2010, when the Democrats lost their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and at least 19 state legislative chambers, maintained control in the U.S. Senate, and lost several important gubernatorial elections. The black vote was critical to the outcome of some closely contested elections, but not enough in many more. In particular, this review will focus on the behavior and significance of African-American voters in the 2010 midterm elections; and the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, as well as their performance at the polls.

 

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There is widespread agreement that the Democrats are poised to lose a significant number of congressional seats in the 2010 midterm elections. This is largely due to high unemployment and a poor economy. The extent of the Democrats’ losses will depend on their ability to turn out their most loyal voters, and no voting bloc will be more important than African Americans. If they can mobilize a strong black turnout, the Democrats can reduce their losses.

What happened? What follows is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what transpired on November 8, 1994, when the Republicans won a majority of seats in both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as in an additional 17 state legislative bodies. In particular, this review will focus on three areas: the behavior and significance of African-American voters in the 1994 midterms elections; the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, and their performance at the polls; and the significance of these substantial Republican gains for black legislators at both the federal and state level. Finally, after reviewing this evidence, a few observations regarding these Republican gains will be offered.

African-American voters, issues and leaders played a more pivotal role in the elections of 1992 than at any time in history.  However, the nature and contours of that participation were quite different from before, and the significance of their role in the electoral process was in many respects quite unexpected.  Despite the unforeseen twists and turns of the 1992 elections, the overall logic of the presidential campaign was strategically quite lucid, and anticipates what may be the shape of racial politics in the 19902 and beyond.

The analysis by senior research associate David Bositis examines the impact African Americans are likely to have in the November elections, with special attention to black trends in partisanship, public opinion, and voting behavior. The volume also includes listings of black Republican elected officials and black delegates and alternatives to the 2000 convention in Philadelphia.

The analysis by senior research associate David A. Bositis examines the impact African Americans are likely to have in the November elections, with special attention to black trends in partisanship, public opinion, and voting behavior. The volume also includes listings of black Democratic elected officials and black delegates and alternates to the 2000 convention in Los Angeles.

This is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what transpired on November 3, 1998, when the black vote was critical to the outcome of a number of closely contested elections. This review focuses on two aspects of the election: (1) the behavior and significance of African American voters in the 1998 midterm elections; and (2) the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, as well as their performance at the polls.

National turnout in the 1998 midterms was down from 1994. According to the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, overall turnout declined from 38.8 percent in 1994 to 36.1 percent this year. African American voters turned out at somewhat lower rates than in 1994, principally reflecting the overall decline among the general population. According to exit polls, the black share of the 1998 vote was 10 percent, the same share as in 1994. Thus, there was no decline in the black share of the vote nationally.

The 2007 Joint Center National Survey of Likely Black Presidential Primary Voters is a national survey of 750 black likely primary/caucus voters, conducted between Oct. 5 and Nov. 2, 2007. Respondents were asked their views on important national problems, issues in the campaign, and candidates for both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations. The survey methodology is described in an accompanying appendix. The Joint Center conducted the survey with the support of the AARP and wishes to thank them for that support.

 

Please use the following links to download the survey and accompanying questionnaire, appendix, and tables.

The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies 2007 National Survey of Likely Black Presidential Primary Voters

National Questionnaire: Sample of 750 African American Likely Primary Voters

Appendix

 

National Survey Tables
Table 1. What do you think is the single most important problem facing the country today? [download]	Table 5. How would you rate the job that congress is doing? Is it excellent, good, only fair, or poor? [download]
Table 2. Please tell me which one of these will be most important [second most important] to you personally in the presidential election? [download]	Table 6. Please tell me which political party you think has the better approach to dealing with some different issues. [download]
Table 3. Would you say that you are financially better off, worse off, or about the same now as you were a year ago? [download]	Table 7. I'm going to read a list of the leading candidates running for president. I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very favorable, favorable, unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you haven't heard about someone or don't know enough about them to rate them, just say so. [download]
Table 4. How would you rate the job that President Bush is doing? Is it excellent, good, only fair, or poor? [download]	Table 8. Which of the Democratic candidates do you think has the best position on: [DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS N = 655]/ [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS N = 95] [download]

 

Date Published: November 2007