The analysis by senior research associate David Bositis examines the impact African Americans are likely to have in the November elections, with special attention to black trends in partisanship, public opinion, and voting behavior. The volume also includes listings of black Republican elected officials and black delegates and alternatives to the 2000 convention in Philadelphia.

The analysis by senior research associate David A. Bositis examines the impact African Americans are likely to have in the November elections, with special attention to black trends in partisanship, public opinion, and voting behavior. The volume also includes listings of black Democratic elected officials and black delegates and alternates to the 2000 convention in Los Angeles.

This is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what transpired on November 3, 1998, when the black vote was critical to the outcome of a number of closely contested elections. This review focuses on two aspects of the election: (1) the behavior and significance of African American voters in the 1998 midterm elections; and (2) the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, as well as their performance at the polls.

National turnout in the 1998 midterms was down from 1994. According to the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, overall turnout declined from 38.8 percent in 1994 to 36.1 percent this year. African American voters turned out at somewhat lower rates than in 1994, principally reflecting the overall decline among the general population. According to exit polls, the black share of the 1998 vote was 10 percent, the same share as in 1994. Thus, there was no decline in the black share of the vote nationally.

The 2007 Joint Center National Survey of Likely Black Presidential Primary Voters is a national survey of 750 black likely primary/caucus voters, conducted between Oct. 5 and Nov. 2, 2007. Respondents were asked their views on important national problems, issues in the campaign, and candidates for both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations. The survey methodology is described in an accompanying appendix. The Joint Center conducted the survey with the support of the AARP and wishes to thank them for that support.

 

Please use the following links to download the survey and accompanying questionnaire, appendix, and tables.

The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies 2007 National Survey of Likely Black Presidential Primary Voters

National Questionnaire: Sample of 750 African American Likely Primary Voters

Appendix

 

National Survey Tables
Table 1. What do you think is the single most important problem facing the country today? [download]	Table 5. How would you rate the job that congress is doing? Is it excellent, good, only fair, or poor? [download]
Table 2. Please tell me which one of these will be most important [second most important] to you personally in the presidential election? [download]	Table 6. Please tell me which political party you think has the better approach to dealing with some different issues. [download]
Table 3. Would you say that you are financially better off, worse off, or about the same now as you were a year ago? [download]	Table 7. I'm going to read a list of the leading candidates running for president. I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very favorable, favorable, unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you haven't heard about someone or don't know enough about them to rate them, just say so. [download]
Table 4. How would you rate the job that President Bush is doing? Is it excellent, good, only fair, or poor? [download]	Table 8. Which of the Democratic candidates do you think has the best position on: [DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS N = 655]/ [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS N = 95] [download]

 

Date Published: November 2007
 

On November 2, 2004, the black vote was critical to the outcome of a number of closely contested elections. What follows is a brief review of turnout and election results from November 2, 2004, based on the available evidence. It focuses on the behavior and significance of African American voters in the elections; and the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for federal office as well as their performance at the polls.

 

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Date Published: 2005

Price: $15.00
 

On November 7, 2000, the black vote was critical to the outcome of a number of closely contested elections. What follows is a brief review of some of the available evidence on this subject. In particular, this review focuses on the significance of African American voters' ballot behavior in the elections. It also examines the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, as well as their performance at the polls.

 

This Publication is Currently Unavailable.

Date Published: 2001
 

With the November elections fast approaching, the Joint Center's just-released 2002 National Opinion Poll results on politics reveal both continuity with earlier polls and a few surprises in African American viewpoints.The questions in this survey of 1,647 adults (850 African American) covered a wide range of issues, including domestic politics and party loyalty, the 2002 midterm elections, and policies on education, foreign affairs, and terrorism.

 

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According to a broad consensus among political experts, the 2004 presidential election would be decided in a handful of states, namely, those where the vote tallies in November 2000 for George W. Bush and Al Gore were separated by five percentage points or less. Several of these swing states had significant voting blocs of African Americans: Michigan, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Louisiana. According to author David Bositis, The size of the black turnout and the direction of black votes will be crucial in determining the next president.

This booklet discusses the range of participation by African Americans in the Democratic Party, the geographic and partisan dimensions of the black vote in recent years, and black voters' attitudes on many issues that were significant in the fall campaign. Detailed statistical tables, and the companion roster of the 2004 national convention's black delegates, alternates, and committee memberships, make this guide a must-have resource. Numerous tables. 21 pages.

 

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Publication date: July 2004

Price: $20.00

This booklet discusses the range of participation by African Americans in the Republican Party, the geographic and partisan dimensions of the black vote in recent years, and black voters' attitudes toward many issues that may be significant in the fall campaign. Detailed statistical tables, and the companion roster of the 2004 national convention's black delegates, alternates, and committee memberships, make this guide a must-have resource for reporters, convention participants, and scholars alike.

 

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Publication date: July 2004

Price: $20.00

 

The following analysis addresses one of the most important developments affecting the economic, social, and political life of African Americans in the new century. Generational cleavages are altering the bedrock of both national life and black life in the United States. These changes are governed by time and history, and they reflect the nation's economic, political, and social change as well as the differences in personal experiences that comprise and result from those changes.

It should be understood at the outset that this study is but the beginning of an effort by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies to understand and anticipate the consequences of these changes for the future of African Americans. These differences only began to surface in Joint Center national opinion polls in the early 1990s. Since then, there has been an accumulation of evidence allowing for not only the documentation, but the investigation, of these shifting policy views as a function of generational identity.

 

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Date Published: 2001

Price: $20.00