Sixteen months after Barack Obama's presidential win seemed to usher in a new era in racial politics, a different reality has emerged: Black candidates in races around the country are struggling so much that the number of African Americans in major statewide offices is likely to drop from the already paltry three. And the possibility exists that there will be no black governors or senators by next year.

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"There were a lot of people who were in fantasy land about black candidates all of sudden getting elected to all of these offices," said David Bositis, who studies black political trends at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. "But in most years, there are only a handful of Senate seats that are truly competitive, and a lot of people want these seats. And given this is going to be a favorable year for Republicans, the notion that it was going to a great year for African American candidates, it just wasn't going to happen."

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What happened? What follows is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what transpired on November 8, 1994, when the Republicans won a majority of seats in both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as in an additional 17 state legislative bodies. In particular, this review will focus on three areas: the behavior and significance of African-American voters in the 1994 midterms elections; the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, and their performance at the polls; and the significance of these substantial Republican gains for black legislators at both the federal and state level. Finally, after reviewing this evidence, a few observations regarding these Republican gains will be offered.

African-American voters, issues and leaders played a more pivotal role in the elections of 1992 than at any time in history.  However, the nature and contours of that participation were quite different from before, and the significance of their role in the electoral process was in many respects quite unexpected.  Despite the unforeseen twists and turns of the 1992 elections, the overall logic of the presidential campaign was strategically quite lucid, and anticipates what may be the shape of racial politics in the 19902 and beyond.

The analysis by senior research associate David Bositis examines the impact African Americans are likely to have in the November elections, with special attention to black trends in partisanship, public opinion, and voting behavior. The volume also includes listings of black Republican elected officials and black delegates and alternatives to the 2000 convention in Philadelphia.

The analysis by senior research associate David A. Bositis examines the impact African Americans are likely to have in the November elections, with special attention to black trends in partisanship, public opinion, and voting behavior. The volume also includes listings of black Democratic elected officials and black delegates and alternates to the 2000 convention in Los Angeles.

This is a brief review of some of the available evidence on what transpired on November 3, 1998, when the black vote was critical to the outcome of a number of closely contested elections. This review focuses on two aspects of the election: (1) the behavior and significance of African American voters in the 1998 midterm elections; and (2) the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, as well as their performance at the polls.

National turnout in the 1998 midterms was down from 1994. According to the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, overall turnout declined from 38.8 percent in 1994 to 36.1 percent this year. African American voters turned out at somewhat lower rates than in 1994, principally reflecting the overall decline among the general population. According to exit polls, the black share of the 1998 vote was 10 percent, the same share as in 1994. Thus, there was no decline in the black share of the vote nationally.

The 2007 Joint Center National Survey of Likely Black Presidential Primary Voters is a national survey of 750 black likely primary/caucus voters, conducted between Oct. 5 and Nov. 2, 2007. Respondents were asked their views on important national problems, issues in the campaign, and candidates for both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations. The survey methodology is described in an accompanying appendix. The Joint Center conducted the survey with the support of the AARP and wishes to thank them for that support.

 

Please use the following links to download the survey and accompanying questionnaire, appendix, and tables.

The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies 2007 National Survey of Likely Black Presidential Primary Voters

National Questionnaire: Sample of 750 African American Likely Primary Voters

Appendix

 

National Survey Tables
Table 1. What do you think is the single most important problem facing the country today? [download]	Table 5. How would you rate the job that congress is doing? Is it excellent, good, only fair, or poor? [download]
Table 2. Please tell me which one of these will be most important [second most important] to you personally in the presidential election? [download]	Table 6. Please tell me which political party you think has the better approach to dealing with some different issues. [download]
Table 3. Would you say that you are financially better off, worse off, or about the same now as you were a year ago? [download]	Table 7. I'm going to read a list of the leading candidates running for president. I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very favorable, favorable, unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you haven't heard about someone or don't know enough about them to rate them, just say so. [download]
Table 4. How would you rate the job that President Bush is doing? Is it excellent, good, only fair, or poor? [download]	Table 8. Which of the Democratic candidates do you think has the best position on: [DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS N = 655]/ [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS N = 95] [download]

 

Date Published: November 2007
 

On November 2, 2004, the black vote was critical to the outcome of a number of closely contested elections. What follows is a brief review of turnout and election results from November 2, 2004, based on the available evidence. It focuses on the behavior and significance of African American voters in the elections; and the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for federal office as well as their performance at the polls.

 

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Date Published: 2005

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On November 7, 2000, the black vote was critical to the outcome of a number of closely contested elections. What follows is a brief review of some of the available evidence on this subject. In particular, this review focuses on the significance of African American voters' ballot behavior in the elections. It also examines the changing numbers and profile of black candidates for both federal and statewide office, as well as their performance at the polls.

 

This Publication is Currently Unavailable.

Date Published: 2001
 

With the November elections fast approaching, the Joint Center's just-released 2002 National Opinion Poll results on politics reveal both continuity with earlier polls and a few surprises in African American viewpoints.The questions in this survey of 1,647 adults (850 African American) covered a wide range of issues, including domestic politics and party loyalty, the 2002 midterm elections, and policies on education, foreign affairs, and terrorism.

 

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